As of 26 July 2023, will four million US citizens turn 18 before the US presidential election (5 November 2024)?

Question

Goodbye Republicans. Your damn days are numbered.

4,000,000
17 year olds
turn 18
before the
November election
_{Twitter (5k+ retweets, 21k+ likes); screenshot on Reddit r/WhitePeopleTwitter (score 30k+)}

The above tweet (dated 26 July 2023) from Southern Sister Resister contains an image claiming four million 17-year olds (which, from context, we should infer are US citizens who may choose to enroll to vote) will turn 18 before the USA's 2024 November 5 presidential election.

Question: As of 26 July 2023, will four million US citizens turn 18 before the US presidential election (5 November 2024)?

Answer 1

True in Novembers in the US

That is, there are about 4 million US kids who turn 18 every year.

This is an old statistic, but it holds water for many years in the US. (It may have first been circulated in 2019.) Here is a chart from 2020, which unfortunately groups 13 and 14 year olds (who turn 18 in 2023 and 2024). Dividing that number gives us approximately 4,203,139.5 kids turning 18 in 2023:

Age group	Total	Male	Female	White*	Black*	American Indian*	Asian*	Hispanic
Total (ages 0-17)	72,822,113	37,194,403	35,627,710	37,778,412	11,123,707	704,252	4,583,907	18,631,835
0 to 5	23,355,628	11,933,548	11,422,080	11,921,654	3,636,395	218,062	1,543,739	6,035,778
6 to 9	16,183,375	8,274,362	7,909,013	8,356,827	2,480,434	159,157	1,050,464	4,136,493
10 to 12	12,348,144	6,300,923	6,047,221	6,383,028	1,892,386	122,322	741,329	3,209,079
13 to 14	8,406,279	4,294,045	4,112,234	4,400,806	1,271,323	82,887	491,640	2,159,623
Age 15	4,175,920	2,131,384	2,044,536	2,217,298	618,278	41,119	250,580	1,048,645
Age 16	4,187,874	2,136,152	2,051,722	2,251,689	614,352	40,694	252,479	1,028,660
Age 17	4,164,893	2,123,989	2,040,904	2,247,110	610,539	40,011	253,676	1,013,557

From OJJDP Statistical Briefing Book.

A similar number (an estimated 4,325,808 who would be 16 in 2022) is given by Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022 (NC-EST2022-AGESEX-RES).

Answer 2

To deal with the specific question found in the body of the original post:

Anyone born before July 26, 2005 is already 18 years old as of July 26, 2023.

Anyone born after Nov 5, 2006, will not be 18 years old as of Nov 5, 2024.

Therefore, the question reduces to: How many US citizens were born during this 468 day window?

Using data for the number of births in 2005 and 2006: https:https://data.unicef.org/resources/data_explorer/unicef_f/?ag=UNICEF&df=DM&ver=1.0&dq=USA.DM_BRTS...&startPeriod=2003&endPeriod=2011

and taking an average for the two years:

Average per year for two years: 4,221,000

Average per day: 11,564

Number in 468 day window: 5,412000

This neglects deaths in this group before their 18 birthday.

It also includes those who are 16 before July 26, 2023, turn 17 before Nov 5, 2023 and turn 18 before Nov 5, 2024

So the answer would be YES, well over 4 million...