# As of 26 July 2023, will four million US citizens turn 18 before the US presidential election (5 November 2024)?

Goodbye Republicans. Your damn days are numbered.

4,000,000
17 year olds
turn 18
before the
November election

The above tweet (dated 26 July 2023) from Southern Sister Resister contains an image claiming four million 17-year olds (which, from context, we should infer are US citizens who may choose to enroll to vote) will turn 18 before the USA's 2024 November 5 presidential election.

Question: As of 26 July 2023, will four million US citizens turn 18 before the US presidential election (5 November 2024)?

## True in Novembers in the US

That is, there are about 4 million US kids who turn 18 every year.

This is an old statistic, but it holds water for many years in the US. (It may have first been circulated in 2019.) Here is a chart from 2020, which unfortunately groups 13 and 14 year olds (who turn 18 in 2023 and 2024). Dividing that number gives us approximately 4,203,139.5 kids turning 18 in 2023:

Age group Total Male Female White* Black* American
Indian*
Asian* Hispanic
Total (ages 0-17) 72,822,113 37,194,403 35,627,710 37,778,412 11,123,707 704,252 4,583,907 18,631,835
0 to 5 23,355,628 11,933,548 11,422,080 11,921,654 3,636,395 218,062 1,543,739 6,035,778
6 to 9 16,183,375 8,274,362 7,909,013 8,356,827 2,480,434 159,157 1,050,464 4,136,493
10 to 12 12,348,144 6,300,923 6,047,221 6,383,028 1,892,386 122,322 741,329 3,209,079
13 to 14 8,406,279 4,294,045 4,112,234 4,400,806 1,271,323 82,887 491,640 2,159,623
Age 15 4,175,920 2,131,384 2,044,536 2,217,298 618,278 41,119 250,580 1,048,645
Age 16 4,187,874 2,136,152 2,051,722 2,251,689 614,352 40,694 252,479 1,028,660
Age 17 4,164,893 2,123,989 2,040,904 2,247,110 610,539 40,011 253,676 1,013,557

A similar number (an estimated 4,325,808 who would be 16 in 2022) is given by Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022 (NC-EST2022-AGESEX-RES).

• There's a bunch of visualisations and data sets available on the Census Bureau site, some of which break down to specific ages, e.g. census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/… which shows 2,223,355 male and 2,123,216 female 14-year-olds in the 2020 census Commented Jul 27, 2023 at 11:40
• Census data is residents and not exclusively citizens, but that's probably not enough difference to change the outcome
– CJR
Commented Jul 27, 2023 at 14:23
• @CJR the census records country of birth. By counting only US-born people, you could put a rough lower bound on the number. I say "rough" because there could be some people who were born in the US with diplomatic immunity who would not be US citizens, but this would be a very small number. The number of US citizens born abroad will be rather higher. There's also the question of US citizens residing abroad who will be eligible to vote and weren't counted in the census. Commented Jul 31, 2023 at 18:09

To deal with the specific question found in the body of the original post:

Anyone born before July 26, 2005 is already 18 years old as of July 26, 2023.

Anyone born after Nov 5, 2006, will not be 18 years old as of Nov 5, 2024.

Therefore, the question reduces to: How many US citizens were born during this 468 day window?

Using data for the number of births in 2005 and 2006: https:https://data.unicef.org/resources/data_explorer/unicef_f/?ag=UNICEF&df=DM&ver=1.0&dq=USA.DM_BRTS...&startPeriod=2003&endPeriod=2011

and taking an average for the two years:

Average per year for two years: 4,221,000

Average per day: 11,564

Number in 468 day window: 5,412000

This neglects deaths in this group before their 18 birthday.

It also includes those who are 16 before July 26, 2023, turn 17 before Nov 5, 2023 and turn 18 before Nov 5, 2024

So the answer would be YES, well over 4 million...