No, every act of piracy does not impact revenue by the current content price
It is important to look at why this claim even exists and who makes it. Firstly, it certainly isn't a strawman. While not every content rights holder who criticizes piracy or talks about lost revenue equates every download with a lost sale, several do currently or have done so..
Claims of copyright infringing downloads equating to a lost sale
This claim that every download is a lost sale seems most commonly attributed to the RIAA. I could not find anyone from the RIAA making such a claim, however I found a judge stating that seemed to be the RIAA's assumption at least at one point.
RIAA’s request problematically assumes that every illegal download resulted in a lost sale.
Source: http://www.vawd.uscourts.gov/OPINIONS/JONES/207CR15REST.PDF
The MPAA also seemed to assume this according to Wikipedia. I wasn't able to access the references where the claim allegedly came from.
The MPAA's estimate was doubted by commentators since it was based on the assumption that one download was equivalent to one lost sale, and downloaders might not purchase the movie if illegal downloading was not an option.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peer-to-peer_file_sharing#Economic_Impact_on_the_film_industry
Evidence against such claims
There are several reasons why it would seem flawed to consider every download a lost sale:
People downloading who already paid for the content
People who would lack funds to purchase the content
For example, in the case of software, the pirating of Windows oeprating system software and Microsoft office products has halped cement Microsoft's domiance in the PC software inddustry in developing countries in Asia and Latin America, bringing customers into the fold that could not afford legal versions of the products. In a recent example, Microsoft declared amnesty to software pirates in Russian cyber cafes because it has recognized that (1) under the present economic conditions in Russia, these businesses could not afford to pay the “legal” price for the software,...
Source: Piracy as Strategy?: A Reexamination of Product Piracy
People downloading to sample who then go on to pay for the content or wouldn't anyway
People downloading who do not have the option to legally purchase the content
It started from small groups of enthusiasts, who had no options for watching anime other than distributing it illegally. They were even encouraged to do so, though never officially. Many anime creators were fully aware of the fan activities in the United States, and although they could not recognize them as legal, they condoned them
Source: Piracy or productivity: unlawful practices in anime fansubbing
- People who download because they won't purchase a product with DRM
Our analysis also suggests that a lack of DRM protection can increase industry profits, even though it hurts the profitability of traditional music retailers.
Source: Downloadable Music Set Free: The Flip Side of DRM Protection
The most often used estimate for the rate of downloads which can be equated to a lost sale seems to be 20%:
A number of academic studies have attempted to estimate the impact that file sharing has had on sound recording sales. The specific estimate of 20% is taken from Pietz, M. and Waelbroeck, P., The Effect of Internet Piracy on Music Sales: Cross Section Evidence , Review of Economic Research on Copyright Issues, 2004, vol. 1(2), pp 78.
Source: The True Cost of Sound Recording Piracy to the U.S. Economy
The actual impact of piracy on content revenue
In addition to the reasons and studies showing that not every download should be considered a lost sale, there have been studies showing that piracy impacts the content industries to a far less extent than is generally claimed and that in some instance can be beneficial.
- A report from the IFPI in 2009 nestimates that 95% of msuci downlaods are illegal, and that only 10% of that 95% can be considered a lost sale.
Source: DIGITAL MUSIC REPORT 2009
- A report showing that the music industry lost substantially less than estimated
However, the impact of piracy on CD sales was considerably smaller than industry estimates. Further, we estimated that, accounting for both demand losses and price adjustments, the industry lost no more than 6.6% of revenue to piracy.
Source: Piracy and the Legitimate Demand for Recorded Music
- A study of French college students found that piracy had a positive effect
Surprisingly, approximately one third of the pirates declared that watching pirated movies increased their demand for films (for instance, it led them to rent or purchase videos that they would not have rented or purchased otherwise). Using regressions analysis, we find no impact of piracy on theater attendance, and a strong impact on video rentals and purchases. However, movie piracy has no impact on video rentals for respondents who use pre-paid pricing schemes at video-stores.
Source: Piracy and the Demand for Films: Analysis of Piracy Behavior in French Universities
Conclusion
All in all, there does not seem to be sufficient evidence to support the claim that each copyright infringing download hurts profit by the same margin as the price of that content. The studies above show that while copyright infringement can have an effect on revenue it is far less than generally claimed and certainly less than a 1:1 ratio of downloads to lost sales. The affect of piracy on revenue may be different for different industries (music, film etc) but in no case is the impact on revenue anywhere near a 1:1 ratio.
Given that piracy can be shown to be beneficial in some cases that would also disprove the titular idea. The only people or organizations who seem to continue to make the claim are those with an agenda who rely on distorted figures (e.g. the BSA report referenced above) or those who argue from an emotional or moral standpoint.
We have more than enough data to conclusively say, no, every act of piracy does not impact revenue by the current content price.
