34

Steemit.com vastly overstates the reliance of Intelligence sources on deagel.com, to the point of outright lying. Deagel.com is not a reliable source of information and has a history of making doom-and-gloom predictions regarding population numbers and GDP levels, dating back at least as far as April 2009. In addition, their "model" assumes an economic ...


24

In addition to Articuno's answer (+1): Lets look at the first reason Ridley gives for RCP8.5 not being realistic: "For a start, this is a world of “continuously increasing global population” so that there are 12 billion on the planet. This is more than a billion more than the United Nations expects, and flies in the face of the fact that the world ...


18

McKinsey & Co's prediction of mobile phone users was about 1% of the actual value. Their prediction persuaded AT&T to pull out of the mobile phone market, a decision which ended up costing AT&T billions of dollars. According to Prof. Angel Lozano (emphasis mine): In 1980, McKinsey & Company was commissioned by AT&T (whose Bell Labs ...


12

Correlation doesn't imply causation. The author of that paper, no matter how convoluted he is trying it to appear, basically just assumes that there are no other parameters in crime rate per capita than temperature and precipitation. Also the model is linear and lacks any proper validation. The assumption that relation between temperature changes within a ...


10

Blogger Randal Olson reproduced a chart from Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise which in turn has based on data from ForecastWatch. Ignore the orange line; it is irrelevant for this discussion. (Just for illustration: It is based on a similar idea of predicting that it will be hot on your birthday, because it has been hot on your previous birthdays.)...


7

Did Healthmap issue an alert about Ebola before the WHO announced an outbreak had been confirmed (question heavily paraphrased) Yes (probably). Their alert was probably issued on the basis that one or more healthcare workers had blogged about their concerns that the illness they were confronting might be Ebola. It seems the WHO wait for reports and ...


3

This sort of thing is an active research topic (a friend of mine works on it), for example social media can be mined to detect outbreaks of disease before it would normally be reported by health organisations. Here is an example of a workshop held on this sort of thing (although in this case it was motivated via bioterrorism, rather than naturally ocurring ...


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