TLDR (see conclusion below): Independent pieces of evidence from the Charité and laboratories in Sweden, Germany and France make the hypothesis that Alexei Navalny was poisoned with Novichok in 2020 likely beyond reasonable doubt. The main suspect is the Federal Security Service due to the large amounts of weaponised Novichok that Russia is expected to have based on a 2014 report of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, as well as based on a Bellingcat report identifying the perpetrators as members of the Federal Security Service.

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Claim 1. seems to be true at least according to official statements of Russian/USSR governments, however leaks by Vil Mirzayanov (cf. e.g. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0045653519300542) suggest that Russia has been experimenting with and/or producing chemical weapons also after 1987.

Most importantly, [according](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN25T2DV/) to a 2014 report by the U.S.-based Nuclear Threat Initiative, Russia is believed to have a stock of thousands of tons of weaponised Novichok varieties and their precursors.

Claim 2. may be true, cf. [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1IH2I0/), however, this seems to concern only isolated samples of Novichok. 

Overall, the hypothesis that, conditional on Novichok poisoning having taken place, Russia is not to blame, seems to be very implausible: Russia has access to a large arsenal of weaponised Novichok while other countries have at most isolated samples. Furthermore, Navalny was poisoned in Russia and not any of the other countries.

Claim 3. appears to be true.

Claim 4. appears wrong: Photos and [press releases](https://epiguard.com/epishuttle-transport-alexei-navalny/) depicting the transport of Navalny to the hospital show that he was in a patient isolation unit, intended for "for quick and easy transport of highly infectious and vulnerable patients" (quote from https://epiguard.com/). Furthermore, Navalny has [said](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN26C1PZ/) that his clothes were taken from him before flying to Germany, and that Russian authorities have refused to hand them over to him.

In summary, appropriate measures of caution appear to have been taken to avoid spreading of Novichok nerve agents to persons close to Navalny during treatment.

Claim 5. is unclear to me: The [Lancet article](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32644-1/) claims that Navalny was poisoned with a cholinesterase inhibitor, of which Novichok nerve agents are a special type. 

Claim 6. Is partially true. While analysis is based on blood samples and the information is classified, biomedical samples were analysed by the Bundeswehr and in two independent laboratories in Sweden and France chosen by the OPCW (see [report](https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/2020/10/s-1906-2020%28e%29.pdf)).

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Overall, while the fact that reports remain classified weakens their evidentiary strength, the combination of evidence that

1. cholinesterase inhibitor poisoning was diagnosed by the Charité;
2. biomedical samples analysed by the Bundeswehr indicated poisoning with Novichok-type nerve agents ([cf.](https://www.science.org/content/article/how-german-military-scientists-likely-identified-nerve-agent-used-attack-alexei-navalny));
3. biomedical samples analysed by two independent laboratories in Sweden and France found traces of Novichok-type nerve agents;
4. Navalny spontaneously collapsed in a flight from Tomsk without any likely natural cause;

seems to make the hypothesis that Navalny was not poisoned with a Novichok-type nerve agent overwhelmingly unlikely. 

Furthermore, conditional on such a poisoning having taken place, the main suspect for responsibility is the Russian Federal Security Service due to the high availability of Novichok-type nerve agents in Russia; this is further underlined by an investigation of Bellingcat, Der Spiegel, CNN and The Insider.