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In the article The whole event was premeditated: the secret "deal" that Iran made with the US (English translation), the author claims that Iran's attack on Israel was coordinated with the USA: the Iranian government had to attack in order to appease its citizens, but did not want to do too much harm in order to not invoke a harsh response.

Is there any evidence supporting or refuting this claim?

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    It's certainly an idea, would be interesting to know and the fact that they made it so obvious well ahead and in a way that Israel managed to intercept most of the drones points in this direction. But apart from that, it's very unlikely that there will be any available evidence - the nature of secrets is that they're, well... Apr 14 at 19:24
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    There are two main problems in this scenario. The first is that according to some reports they sent between 5%-10% of their entire arsenal. That's a lot of money and capabilities to waist on a false flag. The attack that he mentions on the American base, was with 12 rockets, not with hundreds.
    – SIMEL
    Apr 14 at 21:50
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    The second is that this hurts Iran's capabilities and Iran's Ally. having hundreds of drones to practice at shooting down gives Israel, the US and their allies a lot of opportunities to learn about how to best them. Which will hurt the threat posed by this weapon in future attacks. And this information will undoubtedly will also be provided to Ukraine, to help them better protect against the same weapons used by Russia with actual success. Hurting Iran's possible revenue from selling them and its diplomatic ties with Russia if they become useless to Putin.
    – SIMEL
    Apr 14 at 21:53
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    @SIMEL perhaps you should cite those "5%-10%" reports as part of an answer? But I don't find your argument convincing. It could well be the most outdated 10%, which would be neither a big loss nor very representative information source for Israel&allies. Furthermore, those drones will likely also have sent back a lot of data that could be of use for Iran/Syria, regarding how the Israeli air defences work. Apr 14 at 22:14
  • @leftaroundabout, no, what was sent are the same drones being used by Russia in Ukraine. And the missiles that they used are their longer range once, which are the more advanced. Iran had a total arsenal of approx. 3K missiles of all types. Sending 100 missiles is by itself 3% of their arsenal. When you take into account that their arsenal includes also shorter range missiles that would not be able to reach Israel, than the percentage of their long range missiles is larger. iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/…
    – SIMEL
    Apr 15 at 10:24

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IDK if this answers the question, but a Turkish source (and CNN covered this too in a video) claims that Iran told Turkey somewhat explicitly what they planned to do. And so the theory goes that Turkey surely told the US. So, US coordination with Iran is probably overinterpreting it, but if these claims (not yet confirmed by the US, I think) are true, that suggests the defense team had some info more or less deliberately disclosed by the attacker.

Iran informed Turkey in advance of its planned operation against Israel, a Turkish diplomatic source told Reuters on Sunday, adding that Washington had conveyed to Tehran via Ankara that any action it took had to be "within certain limits".

The Turkish source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had spoken to both his U.S. and Iranian counterparts in the past week to discuss the planned Iranian operation, adding Ankara had been made aware of possible developments.

"Iran informed us in advance of what would happen. Possible developments also came up during the meeting with Blinken, and they (the U.S.) conveyed to Iran through us that this reaction must be within certain limits," the source said.

There's not much more detail in there on what information Turkey claims to have received though.

Your Israeli source doesn't mention Turkey at all though, so I'm unsure if they mean something else when writing things like

Iran was required to pay lip service for its public [...] So of course there was a behind-the-scenes agreement with the US.

The machine translation may miss some nuances, but that seem to be a bit devoid of any suggestion of how any agreement was reached. It does make a similar claim about the Iranian attack during the Trump presidency--"The Americans had accurate intelligence because Iran had informed them." But again suggest not how that was communicated, and in that instance I don't recall the press discussing any such details. So that article appears rather speculative--deducing purely from the lack of further escalation that some intel was passed beforehand. That's more a guess [or two] than facts.


FWTW, Iranian officials said various somewhat contradictory things on this

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Tehran had informed the United States that the attack on Israel would be limited and for self-defence, and that regional neighbours had been informed of the planned strikes 72 hours in advance.

However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said that no pre-arranged agreement was made with any country prior to the weekend attack.

And the US appears to be denying that they received [any] such info

Turkish, Jordanian and Iraqi officials said that Iran gave wide notice days before its drone and missile attack on Israel, but US officials said Tehran did not warn Washington and that it was aiming to cause significant damage. [...]

One senior official in US President Joe Biden's administration denied Mr Amir-Abdollahian's statement, saying Washington did have contact with Iran through Swiss intermediaries but did not get notice 72 hours in advance.

"That is absolutely not true," the official said. "They did not give a notification, nor did they give any sense of ...'these will be the targets, so evacuate them.'"

OTOH Iraqi officials say they received good info from Iran on the timing of the attack. (Same source.) ...aaand this rather confusing bit:

Asked if Iran had also given details about the targets and kind of weapons to be used, the Jordanian source did not respond directly but indicated that that was the case.

And another Reuters headline kinda summarizes the controversy:

Iran says it gave warning before attacking Israel. US says that's not true.

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  • Not sure this quote says that they didn't inform others of the attack. "However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said that no pre-arranged agreement was made with any country prior to the weekend attack." The way I read that is that they didn't make any agreements about the attacks not that they didn't inform anyone about the attacks.
    – Joe W
    Apr 15 at 13:39

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