The picture below is posted on 4chan.org (a NSFW website) and seems to claim that in 2021, black people committed 18 times more murders per capita than White people?


ages white male
Murderers per 100,000
hispanic male
Murderers per 100,000
black male
Murderers per 100,000
black female
Murderers per 100,000
hispanic female
Murderers per 100,000
white female
Murderers per 100,000
15-64 5.2 17.4 95.5 8.7 3.6 1.1
5-14 0.2 0.8 4.9
15-24 8.3 28.1 207.4 16.9 4.8 1.4
25-34 7.6 23.5 119.5 13.3 5.7 1.9
35-64 3.6 9.4 38.4 3.9 2.2 0.8
65+ 0.6 1.2 3.8 0.4 0.3 0.1
All 3.5 11.9 64.4 5.8 2.4 0.7
Projected Lifetime 274 819 4508 423 174 59

Any truth to that?

I couldn't find raw data for 2021 myself, but found data for 2019 at Arrests by Race and Ethnicity, 2019 (FBI.gov):

    "Offense charged": "Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter",
    "Total": "7,964",
    "White": "3,650",
    "Black or African American": "4,078",
    "American Indian or Alaska Native": "125",
    "Asian": "83",
    "Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander": "28",
    "Total.1": 100.0,
    "White.1": 45.8,
    "Black or African American.1": 51.2,
    "American Indian or Alaska Native.1": 1.6,
    "Asian.1": 1.0,
    "Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander.1": 0.4,
    "Total2": "6,474",
    "Hispanic or Latino": "1,341",
    "Not Hispanic or Latino": "5,133",
    "Total.2": 100.0,
    "Hispanic or Latino.1": 20.7,
    "Not Hispanic or Latino.1": 79.3

and.. if there are 224,789,109 "white people" and 41,393,012 "Black or African American" people in USA at 2019 (see Neilsberg Research then.. (Edit: removed some very wrong math here, sorry about that)

blackMurders = 4078;
blackPopulation = 41393012;
whiteMurders = 3650;
whitePopulation = 224789109;
murderPerCapitaWhite = (whiteMurders / whitePopulation) * 100000; // 1.6237441467860438 
murderPerCapitaBlack = (blackMurders / blackPopulation) * 100000; // 9.851904471218475 

murderPerCapitaBlack / murderPerCapitaWhite; // 6.067399528872102 

seemingly 6x in 2019? (entirely possible that I messed up the math, again, sorry)

Did black people commit 18 times more murders per capita than white people in 2021?

  • 12
    That data is arrests not "murders committed". There may be other reasons one race is arrested at a higher rate. What is a "murder committed", if 5 people are charged with manslaughter of one person is that really 5 murders?
    – CJR
    Commented Mar 2 at 12:52
  • 12
    In addition to differential arrests, wealthy people can afford lawyers who can plea-bargain or mount an effective defence, whereas poor people are likely to wind up with one overworked public defender. This affects charging behaviour by police; charge the indigent guy, but don't charge they guy with the expensive lawyer because it means more work. In the US black people in general are significantly poorer than white people. And of course, there is measurable racism in every stage of the US justice system from initial stop to final sentencing. Commented Mar 2 at 15:04
  • 11
    Note that even if the figures are correct (no idea if they are or not), there are a lot of correlating factors which could explain this a lot better than the “character” of people of a given skin color: income, education, where they live, which are all very strongly correlated.
    – jcaron
    Commented Mar 24 at 15:41
  • 6
    @PaulJohnson Even if wealth influences it, it cannot be by a factor of 18. To claim that 95% of white murderers are not charged because they are rich and can afford the best lawyers and they don't even get charged because it means more work, would be absurd. And "systematic racism" is not an excuse if the Asians were discriminated against just as strongly (or even more strongly) 80-100 years ago, but they have on average better income than whites. Given this, one might dare to think about personal choices, cultural values, social norms within a community, etc. to be an important factor.
    – vsz
    Commented Mar 27 at 10:37
  • 5
    @vsz A group of a people who were a major despised underclass for centuries to a group of people who, by and large, are immigrants since the 1960s seems largely incomparable.
    – prosfilaes
    Commented Mar 31 at 1:34

1 Answer 1


So here's the deal:

Yes, your calculation is correct; blacks kill 6 times as whites, per capita. But black women don't kill as much as whites. Whites kill roughly 5 per 100k, whereas black women don't kill 6 times of that (30), instead, only 20, so that pushes the black-male-offender per-capita count higher than 6, to almost 10.

So yeah, the 4chan dude probably just exaggerated the numbers; I've checked the FBI NIBRS data for 2019 and they're pretty consistent: blacks kill some 6 times per capita.

In fact, when it comes to interracial homocide, in an hour long interaction between a black and a white, the black is twice as likely to kill the other than the white. Pretty consistent throughout the decades-spanning data.

In an hour-long encounter/interaction between two blacks, it's 4.5 times as likely to become deadly as it is with white-white encounter.

FBI (https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2013.xls) doesn't publish proper data breakdown by gender AND race; here's where it does exist though: https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/htius.pdf.

Murderers by race AND gender (18 to 24 age range):

  • White women: 2 per 100k
  • White men: 20 per 100k
  • Black women: 20 per 100k (10)
  • Black men: 200 per 100k

So it's 10 times: black men are 10 times as murderous per capita as white men, not 20 or 18. Black women's murders per capita have been declining, pushing black men's per capita murder counts higher; it can't go higher than 12 given blacks in general are 6 times as murderous as whites, even if all black women became pacifists, lol. That said, in the 1990s, blacks' per capita homicide counts were more like 10 times, but have fallen to 6 times as whites, today.

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