You can just look at the Wikipedia page for the very same image, and find the following information:
Description English: Illustration of hypothetical damage pattern on a WW2 bomber. Based on a not-illustrated report by Abraham Wald (1943), picture concept by Cameron Moll (2005, claimed on Twitter and credited by Mother Jones), new version by McGeddon based on a Lockheed PV-1 Ventura drawing (2016), vector file by Martin Grandjean (2021).
This file was derived from: Lockheed PV-1 Ventura BuAer 3 side view.jpg: Lockheed PV-1 Ventura BuAer 3 side view.jpg
This file was derived from: Survivorship-bias.png: Survivorship-bias.png
Date 21 March 2021
Source Own work
Author Martin Grandjean (vector), McGeddon (picture), Cameron Moll (concept)
The linked PNG image has the following information:
English: Illustration of hypothetical damage pattern on a WW2 bomber, dot pattern roughly based on that given at http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/09/counterintuitive-world which gives credit to Cameron Moll. This file was derived from: Lockheed PV-1 Ventura BuAer 3 side view.jpg: Lockheed PV-1 Ventura BuAer 3 side view.jpg
Date 12 November 2016
Source Own work
Basically, in 2005, Cameron Moll created the very first image, based on the original paper (1980 reprint) (archived here), which did not feature any images, and was not based on real-world data, but instead used hypothetical observations of damage. That image was used in 2010 by Kevin Drum in the article "The Counterintuitive World". That illustration was then later used as basis for a new illustration based on the Lockheed PV-1 Ventura by Wikipedia user McGeddon (in 2016), before being converted to a vector image by Martin Grandjean in 2021.
Martin Grandjean writes about the image on Twitter:
We owe this observation to Abraham Wald (1943), but it is Cameron Moll (2005) who is at the origin of its visual expression with the red dots. The image of McGeddon (2016) on Wikipedia was then widely circulated. Note that a simpler version can be found in Howard Wainer (1997)
Cameron Moll has weighed in themselves on the origin of the image in "Abraham Wald and the airplane diagram with red bullet holes – here’s the origin story":
At the time I was actively speaking at web conferences in the US & Europe on the topic of problem solving among other things, and Wald's story was a terrific demonstration of solving (and defining) the right problem. I wasn't aware of anyone who had visualized this, so sometime around 2005 I hastily plotted fictitious red dots on a poorly-chosen commercial aircraft outline and began including this in slide decks and blog posts.
The image you've seen repeatedly on the socials is from Wikipedia (creator unknown) and is a recreation of my diagram.
This seems to quite comprehensively summarize the genesis of the image.