Dr Eugene Koonin published a paper in 2007, The cosmological model of eternal inflation and the transition from chance to biological evolution in the history of life in the journal Biology Direct.
An appendix to the paper, titled Probabilities of the emergence, by chance, of different versions of the breakthrough system in an O-region: a toy calculation of the upper bounds claims:
A ribozyme replicase consisting of ~100 nucleotides is conceivable, so, in principle, spontaneous origin of such an entity in a finite universe consisting of a single O-region ["observable region of the universe"] cannot be ruled out in this toy model (again, the rate of RNA synthesis considered here is a deliberate, gross over-estimate).
The requirements for the emergence of a primitive, coupled replication-translation system, which is considered a candidate for the breakthrough stage in this paper, are much greater. At a minimum, spontaneous formation of:
two rRNAs with a total size of at least 1000 nucleotides
~10 primitive adaptors of ~30 nucleotides each, in total, ~300 nucleotides
at least one RNA encoding a replicase, ~500 nucleotides (low bound)is required. In the above notation, n = 1800, resulting in E <10-1018.
In other words, even in this toy model that assumes a deliberately inflated rate of RNA production, the probability that a coupled translation-replication emerges by chance in a single O-region is P < 10-1018.*
Koonin goes on to claim that this low probability is evidence that there is a multiverse with an infinite (or at least a hugely vast) amount of O-regions.
Is the probability of abiogenesis so small? Is this valid evidence to support a multiverse?