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According to these videos, Elvis Mbonye, a self-proclaimed African prophet, predicted events such as the 2012 Ugandan helicopter crash, 2018 Oscar winners, and Ugandan election dispute:

  • Kenyan Election dispute

    "I shall begin to cause division...and they shall come out in the news disowning this disowning of leaders... I am talking about Kenya right now"

  • Ugandan Helicopter Crash

    This video purports than on Aug 7, 2012, Mbonye said

    "Those months [...] in one of the fellowships, I saw that helicopter-thing being blown up, and now before then we didn't have helicopters in Somalia [...] and yesterday I heard they were moving."

    On August 12, a Ugandan military helicopter crashed in Kenya.

  • Oscar Winners

    "I hear call me by best adapted screen play call me by your name, I hear best animated feature film Coco, I see the one who takes best production design The Shape of Water, I hear best film editor Dunkirk, then I see best actor Gary old man, then I heard best sound editor Dunkirk, I am hearing the song remember me best song".

Did Mbonye predict these events?

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    @John: I did not hear him refer to a specific helicopter - can you add that transcription and timestamp please.
    – Oddthinking
    Jan 7, 2023 at 0:58
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    I'm getting tired of these. Time to create a generic question with "No" as an answer?
    – pipe
    Jan 7, 2023 at 7:31
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    I haven't watched through them, but does any of these videos even include any evidence that the "prophecies" were made before the actual events? Anyone could self-host a video claiming to have predicted the Oscars; where are the videos posted before the awards ceremony?
    – IMSoP
    Jan 7, 2023 at 14:53
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    @IMSoP Even if they were posted before it happened, it's easy to post, say, 10 videos saying "Russia will invade Ukraine in 202x", then delete the incorrect ones when the event happens.
    – pipe
    Jan 7, 2023 at 15:19
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    @pipe Indeed. And if it was posted the day before the Oscars, you could "predict" that the bookmakers' favourites would win, and then brag if you got it right, even though betting on those predictions would have net you pennies. I just meant that without some attempt to date it, it fails at the very first hurdle.
    – IMSoP
    Jan 7, 2023 at 16:12

1 Answer 1

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Cherry Picking

These are all highlight videos which can easily have cherry picked the statements which most closely match events. We would need to see an uncut corpus of his work to determine whether this is prophesy or just cherry picking.

Even if we assume that, the statements have a minimal connection to the events; often just one or two keywords.

Ugandan Helicopter Crash

The statements contain no specifics beyond a helicopter being blown up, a mention of Somalia not having helicopters, and then a bunch of stuff about the nations being subdued. No time, no location, no mention of Uganda, no other specifics.

There's nothing particularly significant about this helicopter crash. It certainly didn't put the fear of God into politicians.

Here is a transcription, best I can. Sections in {} are my best guess.

There's something which is unfolding which {you guys} all to pray about {again} those months I saw, umm, I remember in that fellowship, one of the fellowships, I saw, umm, that helicopter thing being blown up and now before then we didn't have helicopters {there in} Somalia {???}

Then there is an edit in the video.

And yesterday {told me} here they were moving. So you guys pray {?} uncover that because {you} all of the sudden wake up and decided ok now let's send helicopters and there's a prophesy hanging, a very dangerous prophesy hanging over that. Now that's what I'm saying that the time is coming when the nations will be subdued before the glory of God they will take this thing seriously. They will begin {consulting} from God on whatever is supposed to be right in the nation. Glory to God! That is basically the element of the prophetic. That is to subdue the nations before the throne of God. They they will recognize that the Lord is God. And so, {all the politicians or the parliament}, all these guys can come up and debate all they want to, but God has forseen it, and God knows you take that action it is deadly, you take this action and prosperity comes.

Kenyan Election Dispute

Again, it's a long, rambling, generic statement about Kenya. No specifics, no names, no date. It could match any political dispute or even an earthquake ("old blocks shaking and crumbling").

The claim is that he predicted a rift between Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and the opposition chief Raila Odinga one week before the event. This video makes this event to be a big deal. Kenyatta and Odinga were speaking together in the US a month later. This seems to be a minor public spat.

He does say "and then the riots will come" which did not seem to be a consequence of this dispute.

This is the YouTube transcription.

kenya the beloved of the lord i see old blocks shaking and crumbling in kenya old blocks shaking and crumbling and the spirit of god says there shall be a new face begin to spring forth to bring new wine and the old structures shall begin to give way to this because they shall come a force that no man and no establishment can put out for i do anything and the spirit of god says these are the signs that you shall see in that nation i shall begin to cause a division i shall begin to cause a strength and they shall come out news of disowning this owning and many leaders disowning being disowned disowning and being disowned and you shall hear you shall hear places that were strongholds of certain known leaders disowning and they shall parade and say we disown we disown for us we are going this way now i'm telling you things that you're going to see it's not there it is there and and the spirit of god says when you shall see i'm talking kenya now the time when it seems like they have progressed and progressed and planned and have said we are surely taking this angle and they have planned everything and then the riots shall come now here we need to pray {???} in the name of jesus {???} the nation of canaan we are there by the power of prophecy and i declare peace over the land that what you do lord may it come out as peaceful as it gets in the name of jesus in the name of jesus

Oscar Predictions

What does God need with the Oscars? According to Mbonye, Hollywood is controlled by high level demonic entities and God will predict the Oscars to show you that Jesus is Lord over Hollywood. I'm on board with demons controlling Hollywood, but Jesus is their boss? I'm confused.

This video claims to be from January 2nd, 2018. It is heavily edited. We only hear him predict 7 of 24 categories in the Oscars that year.

  • Best adapted screen play
  • Best animated feature film
  • Best production design
  • Best film editor
  • Best actor
  • Best sound editor
  • Best [original] song

That is an odd selection. It's lacking the big ones like "Best Picture" and "Best Director". This suggests he got the rest wrong and the video is cherry picking.

All of his picks, with the exception of best original song, were already considered front runners. Let's compare how The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg did in his predictions a month earlier on Dec 1, 2017.

  • Best Actor - Gary Oldman
  • Best Supporting Actress - Allison Janney
  • Best Adapted Screenplay - Call Me By Your Name
  • Best Original Screenplay - Get Out
  • Best Animated Feature - Coco
  • Best Film Editing - Dunkirk

Wow, he got six right! Just one less than Mbonye did; to be fair he did not have divine guidance. Unlike Mbonye, we have all 16 of Feinberg's predictions, so we know he's 6 out of 16. We don't know Mbonye's record.

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    @John These are amusing, and the claims are easy to swat down, but it takes time. I'm not doing this again. I hope by now you see how these claims are investigated and debunked: they're vague, or they're not hard to predict, or they're headline word salad, or the claimed prophesied event isn't consequential. You can do it yourself and even self-answer.
    – Schwern
    Jan 8, 2023 at 2:06
  • "but Jesus is [the demons'] boss? I'm confused." Apologies if you're aware and just making a joke, but God/Jesus described as lord over demons is pretty standard, from what I remember, and is closer in meaning to "has power over" than to "is guiding the actions of".
    – Dan Getz
    Jan 8, 2023 at 2:20
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    @DanGetz If Jesus has power over the demons of Hollywood, why can't we get a decent Jurassic World movie?! Why would an all-powerful all-knowing and all-benevolent God allow the Star Wars prequels to exist?! (I am just taking the piss out of divinely guided Oscar predictions).
    – Schwern
    Jan 8, 2023 at 2:34

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