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The Australian Department of Health and Aging has recently published the National COVID-19 Health Management Plan for 2023.

I have seen criticism that it plays down the seriousness of "Long COVID". At the same time, I haven't found much quality discourse on the seriousness of Long COVID, and think there is room for a few questions on the topic on this site.

The plan states:

An important aspect of Australia’s COVID-19 recovery will be management of long COVID. Research is continuing into this condition in Australia. Australia’s experience of long COVID is potentially different to many other countries due to our high two-dose vaccination rates and the fact that our widespread levels of infection only occurred after the Omicron variant emerged. Infection with the Omicron variant is less likely to lead to long COVID than the Delta variant.

Is Omicron safer than Delta in terms of Long COVID?

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  • Related question more focused on the acute, rather the chronic effects.
    – Oddthinking ♦
    Dec 13, 2022 at 12:05
  • Google query: "long covid correlation to omicron versus delta" has various articles that seem on subject and support the claim as presented.
    – vsfDawg
    Dec 13, 2022 at 16:13
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    @vsfDawg: I look forward to your answer weighing them up and synthesizing them into a coherent conclusion
    – Oddthinking ♦
    Dec 13, 2022 at 22:00

1 Answer 1

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I was able to find two studies, with somewhat conflicting information.

Risk of long COVID associated with delta versus omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 (June 2022) found that omicron carries about half the risk of long covid compared to delta:

Among omicron cases, 2501 (4·5%) of 56 003 people experienced long COVID and, among delta cases, 4469 (10·8%) of 41 361 people experienced long COVID.

Post-covid medical complaints following infection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron vs Delta variants (November 2022) found only a small difference (in regards to chronic cases, though excluding "main post-covid complaints (fatigue and respiratory complaints)"):

we found that individuals infected with Omicron had a similar risk of post-covid complaints (fatigue, cough, heart palpitations, shortness of breath and anxiety/depression) as individuals infected with Delta (B.1.617.2), from 14 to up to 126 days after testing positive, both in the acute (14 to 29 days), sub-acute (30 to 89 days) and chronic post-covid (≥90 days) phases. However, at ≥90 days after testing positive, individuals infected with Omicron had a lower risk of having any complaint (43 (95%CI = 14 to 72) fewer per 10,000), as well as a lower risk of musculoskeletal pain (23 (95%CI = 2-43) fewer per 10,000) than individuals infected with Delta. Our findings suggest that the acute and sub-acute burden of post-covid complaints on health services is similar for Omicron and Delta. The chronic burden may be lower for Omicron vs Delta when considering musculoskeletal pain, but not when considering other typical post-covid complaints.

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    Thanks. I have been reading the second paper to try to get context for the claimed 43 fewer individuals per 10,000 having any complaints. (e.g. is that a huge reduction from 45 to 2 per 10,000, or a politically unimportant reduction of 450 to 407 per 10,000?) The text before Fig 4 says "The adjusted prevalence of post-covid complaints ranged from 5 to 250 per 10,000 individuals" but Fig 4 shows lines between 200 and 400 ppm. I haven't figured out how to resolve this apparent inconsistency.
    – Oddthinking ♦
    Dec 14, 2022 at 1:20
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    @Oddthinking To me, it looks like Delta is at about 370 for "any complaint" in fig 4, and Omicron at 330 (very approximately) at the 90 day line. That would be a difference of about 43 (the graphs also show well that it's mostly musc. pain that makes the difference). So it's closer to your "unimportant reduction" example (around 11%).
    – tim ♦
    Dec 14, 2022 at 8:14
  • re "5 to 250": I'm not sure what that refers to. "adjusted" might be a relevant keyword here. It might also reference different analyses; sensitivity analysis (which includes untested individuals) and main analysis (which doesn't).
    – tim ♦
    Dec 14, 2022 at 8:14

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