There have been numerous reports that the P1 variant of SARS-CoV-2 0 a.k.a. the Brazilian variant - is more lethal to younger generations:

However the bulk of these media reports focus on individual stories or anecdotal reports. While some statistics in the media reports give slight credence to the notion that the P1 variant is more lethal to the young, others are less convincing, for example the CNN report that:

An AFP analysis of data from that ministry found the number of people aged 30-59 represented about 27% of Covid-19 deaths over the past three months or so -- a 7% increase from pre-December numbers.

So is there any evidence that strongly suggests the P1 variant is significantly more lethal to younger generations?

  • 4
    This is too 'recent event'. Without any peer reviewed studies, and a paucity of even preprint material, only premature analysis can be pitched against each other. Too many caveats to apply to any possible answer (which would indeed be a qualified yes atm: relatively higher… how much or 'at all really' still unclear) Commented Apr 16, 2021 at 12:31
  • @LangLаngС Whilst normally I might be among the first to agree with you, this is such a major issue that live stats are being generated at an unprecedented rate, it's therefore possible to keep our eyes on the current situation in ways which wouldn't usually be possible. Hindsight will no doubt provide correctives for inaccuracies, misrepresentations and errors - a comparison could in itself be informative. Commented Apr 17, 2021 at 0:31
  • related link regarding the uncertainty of new variants livescience.com/uk-coronavirus-variant-severity.html
    – Avery
    Commented Apr 18, 2021 at 15:51

1 Answer 1


This article does not actually name the variant as 'P1' but it relates to Brazil and it names a 'new coronavirus variant' so it is without doubt that P1 is the varaint being remarked upon by Dr Rezende of the AMIB.

Also, the article does not comment on 'lethality' but only on patients present in ICU. However other data elsewhere indicates a typical mortality rate of 35.7% of ICU treated Covid-19 cases.

The number of COVID-19 patients under 40 in intensive care in Brazil surpassed older groups last month, a researcher said Sunday, amid a deadly surge driven partly by a new coronavirus variant.

The number of people aged 39 or younger in intensive care units with COVID-19 in March rose sharply to more than 11,000, or 52.2 percent of the total, said the Brazilian ICU Project.

That was up from 14.6 percent of total ICU patients early in the pandemic and around 45 percent from September through February.

"Previously, this was a population that would typically only develop a less-severe form of the disease and would not need intensive care. So the increase for this age group is very significant," said Dr. Ederlon Rezende, co-coordinator of the project, an initiative of the Brazilian Association of Intensive Medicine (AMIB).

Medical Express April 11th 2021

Note : This article is stated as 'CCO Public Domain'

Growing evidence shows that young people are not only more likely to get infected with P.1 but also to die from it, some experts have warned. The Brazilian Association of Intensive Care Medicine said that the number of 18-45 year olds requiring intensive care for covid-19 in February to March this year was three times greater than in September to November 2020,5 and coronavirus related deaths in that age group have almost doubled.

Maragareth Portela, a senior researcher at Fiocruz, said that Brazil’s saturated hospitals could partly explain the higher mortality rates, as patients were less likely to survive if beds and equipment were short and staff were overwhelmed.

Yet the increase is higher in regions where P.1 is more prevalent, suggesting that it is not only more transmissible but also more lethal. “It is very likely that the P.1 variant is more severe among young adults,” said Portela.

British Medial Journal 01 April 2021

  • 1
    You missed this quote "Another factor may be the new Brazilian variant, known as P1, which experts say is partly responsible for the country's COVID-19 death toll exploding in March." and the other factors offered, Currently, this answer is suffering from the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.
    – Oddthinking
    Commented Apr 17, 2021 at 1:17
  • @Oddthinking I don't follow you. Dr Rezende is providing evidence of a surge 'driven partly by a new variant'. The evidence is statistical.
    – Nigel J
    Commented Apr 17, 2021 at 2:39
  • 2
    There are two things happening: a surge in younger people in ICU and a new variant. Dr Rezende says that that latter may be responsible for part of the former. Unnamed, unquoted experts apparently said the latter is partly responsible. We are presented with no evidence of that and there is nothing for us to follow up on. This is more like a repeat of the claim than evidence that the claim is right.
    – Oddthinking
    Commented Apr 17, 2021 at 4:30

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