19

A page from "3 days ago" which has been retweeted or liked some tens of thousand of times:

An estimated 30 percent of Democrats believe that Donald Trump won the election.

That’s nearly 1/3 of all Democrats!

These results are taken from the latest Rasmussen poll.

Rasmussen was one of the most accurate pollsters in both 2016 and 2020.

Is there such a Rasmussen poll with that finding that 30% of Democrats think Trump won the 2020 election?

6
  • 1
    The Rasmussen poll referred to must be this one: rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/… – mmeent Nov 23 '20 at 10:37
  • 2
    I can find no evidence of it making the stated claim though. – mmeent Nov 23 '20 at 10:38
  • 1
    It might be worth investigating how they went from the poll to the claim in that article, if only to demonstrate how and why they got it wrong. – Shadur Nov 23 '20 at 11:08
  • Please edit the title to match the claim you have accepted an answer to. – Daniel R Hicks Nov 25 '20 at 1:28
  • @DanielRHicks: If you think the answer was not quite explicit enough (that the poll didn't really have that claim), ask Laurel to edit his answer. To me his answer was satisfactory. – Fizz Nov 25 '20 at 1:35
31

In a poll reported by Rasmussen Reports on Twitter, 30% of Democrats believed it was likely that Democrats committed election fraud:

Huge: "How likely is it that Democrats stole votes or destroyed pro-Trump ballots in several states to ensure that Biden would win?"

Democrats - 30% - 20% say Very Likely (VL)
Unaffiliated - 39% - 29% say VL
Republicans - 75% - 61% say VL
All Voters - 47% - 36% say VL

This doesn’t per se mean that these people believe that Trump won, as Biden getting the most votes and Democrats committing election fraud are not necessarily mutually exclusive. For example, you might think that several small occurrences of “stealing votes” happened, but nothing big enough to affect the results.

(I won’t address if any fraud happened here as it’s a different question. It may not even be a question that can be satisfactorily answered right now, considering that some of the convictions this year for election fraud were for crimes committed in the 2016 election.)

According to Rasmussen’s website, their poll was done November 17-18 2020 with a mixture of automated phone and online polling.

Opinion polls tend to vary in outcome depending on the wording of the questions and other, hard-to-pin-down factors. Rasmussen Reports, according to several sources cited by Wikipedia has mixed reviews for how accurate it is, and also is said to have a Republican bias. Another poll, from a source that Wikipedia speaks favorably of (despite failing to predict Trump winning in 2016), put ‘the share of registered voters who say they trust the United States' election system either "a lot" or "some"’ at 80% for Democrats on almost the same day (November 16th). And other numbers were higher, such as the 91% of Democrats falling into ‘the share of registered voters who say the 2020 presidential election was “probably” or “definitely” free and fair’.

(Unfortunately I haven’t been able to find anything that directly asked if people believe Trump lost the election due to fraud.)

1

You must log in to answer this question.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged .