# Why is the estimated fatality rate of the 2019-nCoV virus so low?

I have seen multiple sources claiming that the fatality rate of the 2019-nCoV virus is around 2% to 10%.

At the same time, as of February 3rd 2020, 362 patients were reported to have died from the virus, while only 523 have recovered. [1]

Simple maths show that this would result in a fatality rate of 40.9%.

So where is this great difference in values coming from?

• Better question for a site like Biology.SE Commented Feb 3, 2020 at 13:24
• There is a very similar question on MedicalSciences: medicalsciences.stackexchange.com/questions/20970/… It's fine there IMO, but I would not recommend posting it to Biology. Commented Feb 3, 2020 at 23:47
• A simple assumption that all who've contracted the illness have been put in either the 362 and 523 numbers. It's a false assumption. Only the very ill are counted in those numbers; only the ones shown up at the hospital.
– user11643
Commented Mar 12, 2020 at 20:06
• Simply put, "died" and "recovered" aren't the only possible states for those infected; you've neglected to include "currently alive and infected", which covers far more people (currently) than the other two categories. Commented Mar 16, 2020 at 15:57