Tax Policy Center reports across all income levels:
About 65 percent of households paid less in individual income taxes in 2018 as a result of the TCJA. About 6 percent paid more. The rest paid about the same.
Results by income level are in Table 2 of the full report:
- Bottom quintile (< $25k): 27% reduced; 1% increased
- Second quintile ($25-47k): 65% reduced; 6% increased
- Third quintile ($57-78k): 82% reduced; 9% increased
- Fourth quintile ($78-127k): 89% reduced; 10% increased
- Top quintile (> $127k): 90% reduced; 10% increased
These figures include households with zero tax burden in both years (common in the lowest quintile), even though obviously they could not have their tax burden reduced.
"Middle class" varies in its definition, but a typical one would comprise the third and fourth quintiles, of which 86% paid less tax.
This overall result (clear majority of households paying less) is consistent with other findings. New York Times:
Other analyses reached similar conclusions. The Joint Committee on Taxation — Congress’s nonpartisan team of tax analysts — found that every income group would see a tax cut on average. So did the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a left-leaning think tank that was sharply critical of the law. In fact, that group went even further: In a December 2017 analysis, it found that every income group in every state would pay less on average under the law in 2019.
So far, tax season seems to be playing out more or less as the experts predicted. H&R Block, the tax-preparation giant, said last week that two-thirds of returning customers had paid less tax this year than last (excluding people who owed no tax in either year). Taxes were down, on average, in every state.