Ted Cruz during in interview with Hugh Hewitt claimed that democrats are more likely to commit violent crime than republicans.

He apparently is getting this statistic from a study on three states entitled Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science.

TC: Now listen, here’s the simple and undeniable fact. The overwhelming majority of violent criminals are Democrats. The media doesn’t report that. What they report, and there’s a reason why the Democrats for years have been viewed as soft on crime, because they go in and they appoint to the bench judges who release violent criminals. They go in, and they do what Barack Obama tried to do, which is appoint a lawyer voluntarily represented for free, a cop killer, to a senior Justice Department position. They go in and fight to give the right to vote to convicted felons. Why? Because the Democrats know convicted felons tend to vote Democrat.

An article on politifact analyses the paper and concludes that Ted Cruz's statement is mostly false. But, there are a host of other online articles which make the opposite claim, (and vice versa).
I tried searching for academic articles, but couldn't find any.

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    Democrats tend to live in urban areas. Urban areas tend to have higher crime rates. I would be surprised if there wasn't some effect but I'm not aware of any data. – Loren Pechtel Nov 16 '16 at 5:29
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    @Shadur Where did I imply causation? The question is simply about the relationship, not whether being Democrat causes criminality. – Loren Pechtel Nov 16 '16 at 7:12
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    @gerrit only felons, not all criminals, and afaik not all elections. And not being allowed to vote doesn't stop them being members of one party of the other. – jwenting Nov 16 '16 at 12:34
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    @gerrit "Felons are allowed to vote in most states of the US" en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felony_disenfranchisement It varies from state to state and if the right to vote is taken away a felon can often get it resorted. – DavePhD Nov 16 '16 at 12:38
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    @KDog - Why? Because if you don't control for the factor, then you can't say anything about that. It might be that poor people are more likely, not Dem vs Republican. Correlation vs cause, and if cause is not the point, why is the affiliation being raised, at all? In order to verify or validate that statement, you have to control for political affiliation not just count raw numbers. That means poor urban Dems vs poor urban Republicans, middle class suburban Dems vs middle class suburban Republicans, rural vs rural, maybe even controlling along racial lines. – PoloHoleSet Nov 16 '16 at 15:32

The study you cite is an academic study

The authors, professors from the University of Pennsylvania and Stanford University, found that in some states, felons register Democratic by more than six-to-one. In New York, for example, 61.5 percent of convicts are Democrats, just 9 percent Republican. They also cited a study that found 73 percent of convicts who turn out for presidential elections would vote Democrat.

A new study of how criminals vote found that most convicts register Democratic, a key reason in why liberal lawmakers and governors are eager for them to get back into the voting booth after their release.

“Democrats would benefit from additional ex-felon participation,” said the authoritative study in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science.

While not necessarily registered Democrats, the ex-felon population is inclined to vote for them and overwhelmingly register for them. And while the study only included 3 states, those states were rather diverse. There is little to no reason to not take the results at face value. While such quibbles detract from the full, 100% accuracy of Cruz's comments, even Politifact found no fault with the study itself, nor with the general gist of Cruz's comments. They admitted so in their findings.

Politifact is not a reliable source of information.


Now comes a study from the George Mason University Center for Media and Public Affairs that demonstrates empirically that PolitiFact.org, one of the nation's leading "fact checkers," finds that Republicans are dishonest in their claims three times as often as Democrats. "PolitiFact.com has rated Republican claims as false three times as often as Democratic claims during President Obama's second term," the Center said in a release, "despite controversies over Obama administration statements on Benghazi, the IRS and the AP."

Link: Damning Bias


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    If Republicans ARE dishonest three times as often, and Politifact finds that is the case when they fact check, how is that bias? In order to demonstrate bias, they'd have to demonstrate that they INCORRECTLY are making that attribution. The passages you link make the assumption that it is false, and then claim bias, when their assumptions only show their own bias, correct or not. Your link from a politically partisan op-ed source, itself, does not prove bias. The study did not find anything about "convicts" because convicts can't vote. It addresses EX-felons, and notification laws. – PoloHoleSet Nov 16 '16 at 15:51
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    The title of the study is "Do Voting Rights Notification Laws Increase Ex-Felon Turnout?" – PoloHoleSet Nov 16 '16 at 15:55
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    Let us continue this discussion in chat. – PoloHoleSet Nov 16 '16 at 17:44
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    the study I cite, although an academic study, has far too small a sample size, and is only reflective of their political leanings, post prison. And was not intended to address this issue, and, the three states it was done in, are majority democrat states. – Torsten Gang Nov 16 '16 at 18:08
  • The study is about people convicted of crimes, which is not necessarily the same as committing crimes. Maybe some have better lawyers or are not caught or prosecuted. – Keith McClary Nov 19 '16 at 23:03

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