In recently published video and press release SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) claims that intended target for the SA-11 operated by Russian separatists was Russian Aeroflot flight SU2074 (aka AFL-2074) from Moscow to Larnaca, Cyrpus. They claim that their flight paths crossed over with just 500m of vertical separation just 11 minutes prior to MH17 being shot down.
Images from www.ssu.gov.ua
Allegedly this was supposed to serve as casus belli, and provoke full scale Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine.
This leaves few questions open:
- Is there any evidence to back factual claims in the press release (movement of SA-11, flight paths overlapping etc)?
- Has any of said evidence been verified or confirmed by independent sources (for example Western intelligence agencies)?
- Is the evidence sufficient to draw conclusion about intended target?