The Lindy effect is the observation that, contrary to the pattern with perishable things like people, the longevity so far is a good predictor of the future longevity. In other words, technologies that have already survived a long time can be expected to continue to survive for a long time (whereas people who are old are likely to die soon).
Taleb argues thus in a recent Wired article:
For a perishable human, every year that elapses reduces his life expectancy by a little less than a year.
The opposite applies to non-perishables like technology and information. If a book has been in print for 40 years, I can expect it to be in print for at least another 40 years. But – and this is the main difference – if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another 50 years.
He isn't arguing that this is a perfect rule, just a good statistical estimate (so don't be too quick to provide single examples as answers!)
Given that this is a statistical generalization, is the weight of evidence in favour of the idea?