Timeline for Do most locations have an infection fatality rate less than 0.20% from Covid-19 (and less than 0.05% for those under 70 y.o.)?
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19 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
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| Jan 23, 2021 at 20:12 | answer | added | norstadt | timeline score: -1 | |
| Jan 21, 2021 at 21:26 | answer | added | GoonerB52 | timeline score: -3 | |
| Jan 20, 2021 at 2:46 | answer | added | Andrew Lazarus | timeline score: 9 | |
| Jan 16, 2021 at 16:05 | comment | added | David Hammen | @matt_black - US fatalities are verging on 400k rather than a "mere" 330k. Either way, a 0.1% IFR would imply that every American has been either infected at least once, or that people can easily be infected twice, thrice, or even more often. An IFR of 0.2% or lower is either ludicrous or a sign that this disease is even more highly contagious than people thought, and a disease where immunity does not last very long at all. Whatever the case may be, it makes the seasonal flu look like a case of the sniffles. | |
| Jan 16, 2021 at 14:13 | comment | added | Daniel R Hicks | Where is "location" defined? | |
| Jan 16, 2021 at 11:29 | answer | added | Philipp | timeline score: 0 | |
| Jan 15, 2021 at 20:30 | comment | added | matt_black | Current US fatalities are well over 330k. Even assuming 330k that gives a population fatality rate of 0.1% (divide by your estimate of infection rate to get the IFR so, if you think 10% of the population has been infected the IFR is 1%). This doesn't reinforce the estimates in that paper unless you make absurd assumptions about the infection rate. | |
| Jan 13, 2021 at 22:23 | comment | added | Tom Goodfellow | The UK Corona Infection Survey reported in Nov 2020 that 8.7% of the population had antibodies, at which time 0.08% of the population had been killed by it. So that's closer to a 1% infection fatality rate. | |
| Jan 13, 2021 at 18:43 | comment | added | antlersoft | Ionnadis' work, in particular, has been terrible throughout the Covid epidemic. He's infamous for predicting that there would be fewer than 5,000 deaths in the US, and then quickly revising that to 10,000 as events rapidly overtook his cherry-picked statistics. It's become clear that his papers on the subject reflect his biases rather than scientific reasoning. | |
| Jan 13, 2021 at 11:46 | comment | added | Mad Scientist♦ | I didn't mean to rephrase the question, but I think you could use a direct comparison now to get some lower bounds on IFR simply because a lot of people have died now. | |
| Jan 13, 2021 at 11:45 | comment | added | days of love iff good genes | There actually was a broad q like that on Covid vs common-cold cornonaviruses, but that was early on when there weren't zillions of papers on Covid-19. | |
| Jan 13, 2021 at 11:40 | comment | added | days of love iff good genes | @MadScientist: I guess you've missed the (recent?) mod-trend to ask more narrow questions (See skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/50105/…). Even regarding Covid-19 vs flu we have had somewhat narrow questions like skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/49864/… I think a generic question "is it worse than" would be somewhat undesirable at this point... | |
| Jan 13, 2021 at 9:06 | comment | added | Mad Scientist♦ | Not sure if that is the same paper that made rounds rather early in the pandemic, but I vaguely remember lots of criticism of cherry-picking the studies for the meta analysis there. And on the IFR comparison to the flu I've seen a few comparisons recently between typical flu season deaths and Covid, and it's not even close, so that might be one way to answer this by comparing it directly to previous flu seasons as that is more straightforward than the IFR calculations | |
| Jan 13, 2021 at 9:00 | history | tweeted | twitter.com/StackSkeptic/status/1349280045962047489 | ||
| Jan 13, 2021 at 8:57 | comment | added | days of love iff good genes | There was actually press coverage even before the manuscript was officially accepted by the WHO Bulletin, presumably based on the preprint apnews.com/article/fact-checking-9243914747 | |
| Jan 13, 2021 at 8:32 | history | edited | days of love iff good genes | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Jan 13, 2021 at 6:03 | history | edited | days of love iff good genes | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Jan 13, 2021 at 5:24 | history | edited | days of love iff good genes | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Jan 13, 2021 at 4:39 | history | asked | days of love iff good genes | CC BY-SA 4.0 |