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matt_black
matt_black
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Is there less than a one in a trillionquadrillion chance of Biden winning states where Trump held the early lead?

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matt_black
matt_black
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Is there less than a one in a trillion chance of Biden winning states where Trump held the early lead?

The petition to the US Supreme Court on behalf of Texas and against the swing state administrators and legislators contains this claim:

The probability of former Vice President Biden winning the popular vote in the four Defendant States—Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—independently given President Trump’s early lead in those States as of 3 a.m. on November 4, 2020, is less than one in a quadrillion, or 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000. For former Vice President Biden to win these four States collectively, the odds of that event happening decrease to less than one in a quadrillion to the fourth power

I presume the basis of this statistical claim is something to do with historic progression of vote totals during counts. But is the claim true or even remotely by any extraordinary stretch of the imagination statistically plausible?