Timeline for Have 'a lot' of New Yorkers 'fled the city' to Florida?
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6 events
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| Mar 26, 2020 at 4:59 | comment | added | Acccumulation | @Oddthinking BTW, there's an approximation for this sort of situation of e^(-pn). Here, given your numbers, this give e^(-200*0.0116) = 0.0982735856 , or 9.8% chance that a flight won't have any infected. | |
| Mar 26, 2020 at 3:40 | comment | added | days of love iff good genes | @Oddthinking: some more reading on this irishtimes.com/life-and-style/travel/… By the time the flight disembarks, there might be 10 people seeded by that one, if the flight was full. | |
| Mar 26, 2020 at 2:25 | comment | added | Oddthinking♦ | DeSantis's claim of every single flight seems extreme. Back of envelope: NY has 30,811 confirmed cases (and counting). Assume that is the tip of the iceberg, and there are... 100,000? infections in 8.6 million people, or 1.16%. In a plane of, say, 200 people, assuming (wrongly) that they are independently sampled, there is a 1-(1-1.16%)^200 = 90% chance that any flight contains an infected person. Wow, his statement isn't as ridiculous as it sounded. | |
| Mar 26, 2020 at 2:18 | comment | added | Oddthinking♦ | I don't think this answers the question. It just repeats the claim. | |
| Mar 24, 2020 at 22:21 | history | edited | user8356 | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
remove duplicate word
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| Mar 24, 2020 at 19:25 | history | answered | user8356 | CC BY-SA 4.0 |