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Bounty Ended with 50 reputation awarded by user000001
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BradC
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Conclusion(Preliminary) Conclusion: 4 of the 5 claims check out so far (with caveats based on imperfect data sets), based on referenced crime data provided by the DOJ and FBI. (Still working on the final claim)

Nitpick: The "Rape/sexual assault" crime category in the DOJ reports is fairly broad (it includes attempted rape, other kinds of sexual assault, and even threats of rape), and it is not possible, withso this data, to distinguishparticular source doesn't differentiate between the reporting percentage of each of these smaller sub-groups (if there is any difference).

I found another (earlier) source that does distinguish between them, and the numbers aren't out of line. The BJS report "Rape and Sexual Assault: Reporting to Police and Medical Attention, 1992-2000" reports the following in Table 3:

  • Completed Rape: 36% reported to police
  • Attempted Rape: 34% reported to police
  • Sexual assault: 26% reported to police

31% still seems like a reasonable number.

Conclusion: 4 of the 5 claims check out (with caveats based on imperfect data sets), based on referenced crime data provided by the DOJ and FBI. (Still working on the final claim)

Nitpick: The "Rape/sexual assault" category in the DOJ reports is fairly broad (it includes attempted rape, other kinds of sexual assault, and even threats of rape), and it is not possible, with this data, to distinguish the reporting percentage of each of these smaller sub-groups.

(Preliminary) Conclusion: 4 of the 5 claims check out so far (with caveats based on imperfect data sets), based on referenced crime data provided by the DOJ and FBI. (Still working on the final claim)

Nitpick: The "Rape/sexual assault" crime category in the DOJ reports is fairly broad (it includes attempted rape, other kinds of sexual assault, and even threats of rape), so this particular source doesn't differentiate between the reporting percentage of each of these smaller sub-groups (if there is any difference).

I found another (earlier) source that does distinguish between them, and the numbers aren't out of line. The BJS report "Rape and Sexual Assault: Reporting to Police and Medical Attention, 1992-2000" reports the following in Table 3:

  • Completed Rape: 36% reported to police
  • Attempted Rape: 34% reported to police
  • Sexual assault: 26% reported to police

31% still seems like a reasonable number.

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BradC
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Conclusion: TBD4 of the 5 claims check out (with caveats based on imperfect data sets), based on referenced crime data provided by the DOJ and FBI. (Still working on the final claim)

UPDATE: I can't find this statistic (or the other claims below) in the FBI summary data online. Downloading and analyzing the raw NIBRS data is within my expertise as a DBA, but is quite a daunting task (43 raw CSVs for each state for each yearStill working on this one, although this data does not appear to be in the FBI NIBRS data. In fact, I found a page that explicitly says that the FBI UCR program doesn't collect data on the number of persons who were prosecuted, convicted, and/or imprisoned.). I might ultimately take that on, but for now I'm going to see if I can find other online studies that can confirm or refute these estimates.

This one goes back to the BJS data, thanks for pinpointing the source, @BobTheAverage.

The Felony Defendants in Large Urban Counties report for 2009 (page 24, Table 21) shows a felony conviction rate of 57% for rape.

57% of 11 (in the chart) is 6.still working3, so rounding that up to 7 seems reasonable.

Nitpick: This report is for the 75 largest counties in the US, not for the entire US population. (This isn't cherry-picking, this report is the only one of this type available.) Clearly urban and rural counties will have different crime patterns; the question here is whether the rates of conviction and incarceration are similar, even if the volume is different.

. From the same report (Page 29, Table 24), 89% of convictions for rape result in jail time.

This is very close to chart value of 85%.still working

Nitpick: (See nitpick on Claim 4)

Conclusion: TBD

UPDATE: I can't find this statistic (or the other claims below) in the FBI summary data online. Downloading and analyzing the raw NIBRS data is within my expertise as a DBA, but is quite a daunting task (43 raw CSVs for each state for each year). I might ultimately take that on, but for now I'm going to see if I can find other online studies that can confirm or refute these estimates.

...still working

...still working

Conclusion: 4 of the 5 claims check out (with caveats based on imperfect data sets), based on referenced crime data provided by the DOJ and FBI. (Still working on the final claim)

(Still working on this one, although this data does not appear to be in the FBI NIBRS data. In fact, I found a page that explicitly says that the FBI UCR program doesn't collect data on the number of persons who were prosecuted, convicted, and/or imprisoned.)

This one goes back to the BJS data, thanks for pinpointing the source, @BobTheAverage.

The Felony Defendants in Large Urban Counties report for 2009 (page 24, Table 21) shows a felony conviction rate of 57% for rape.

57% of 11 (in the chart) is 6.3, so rounding that up to 7 seems reasonable.

Nitpick: This report is for the 75 largest counties in the US, not for the entire US population. (This isn't cherry-picking, this report is the only one of this type available.) Clearly urban and rural counties will have different crime patterns; the question here is whether the rates of conviction and incarceration are similar, even if the volume is different.

From the same report (Page 29, Table 24), 89% of convictions for rape result in jail time.

This is very close to chart value of 85%.

Nitpick: (See nitpick on Claim 4)

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BradC
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...still working.UPDATE: I can't find this statistic (RAINN says this is fromor the sameother claims below) in the FBI sourcesummary data online. Downloading and analyzing the raw NIBRS data is within my expertise as abovea DBA, but I'm still trying to find itis quite a daunting task (43 raw CSVs for each state for each year). I may have to dig into the actual raw datamight ultimately take that on, not just the summary tables. Stay tuned..but for now I'm going to see if I can find other online studies that can confirm or refute these estimates.)

...still working. (RAINN says this is from the same FBI source as above, but I'm still trying to find it. I may have to dig into the actual raw data, not just the summary tables. Stay tuned...)

UPDATE: I can't find this statistic (or the other claims below) in the FBI summary data online. Downloading and analyzing the raw NIBRS data is within my expertise as a DBA, but is quite a daunting task (43 raw CSVs for each state for each year). I might ultimately take that on, but for now I'm going to see if I can find other online studies that can confirm or refute these estimates.

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BradC
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BradC
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