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This questions on Politics SEThis questions on Politics SE introduced me to the concept of the red shift. In short, the claim of a red shift boils down to a statistically significant difference between outcome of final exit polls and results of elections, which would then imply fraud. Some quotes of (effectively identical) claims from different sources:

America's Media Just Made Vote-Rigging Easier. By Victoria Collier, Truthout

The Red Shift has been detected in both state and federal American elections, where computerized vote totals have consistently "shifted" - often by a 5 percent to 7 percent margin disparity (sometimes less, but sometimes much greater) - in comparison to hand-counts and polling data. This mysterious seismic lurch invariably pushes votes to the right, and when the dust settles, it has inordinately benefitted GOP candidates and ballot issues

Wisconsin: None dare call it vote rigging. By Bob Fitrakis, The Free Press

One of my favorite mathematicians is Richard Charnin, who on his website using readily available public information, calculates the odds of the so-called ‘red shift" occurring from the 1988 to 2008 presidential elections. The red shift refers to the overwhelming pick up of votes by the Republican Party in recorded votes over what actual voters report to exit pollsters.

And perhaps the strongest claim of all, one used as a source for many others:

Election Fraud: An Introduction to Exit Poll Probability Analysis , Richard Charnin:

123 of the 126 exit polls in which the MoE was exceeded moved to the recorded vote in favor of the Republican (the “red shift”). Just 3 moved in favor of the Democrat (” the blue shift”). There is a ZERO probability that this one-sided shift was due to chance. It is powerful evidence beyond any doubt of pervasive systemic election fraud.

The titles of the three posts all state this implies fraud or vote-rigging, but a comment in the third link begs to differ:

The statistical analysis here is impressive, but it fails to address one major flaw in almost all statistics that involve exit polling and polling in general; there is an inherent demographic of individuals who willingly choose to take polls and that same demographic tend to lean more Republican/Conservative in nature. That factor alone can account for everything in your model suggesting fraud.

My question therefore consists of two parts:

  1. Is there such a "red shift"?
  2. If so, can this only be explained by fraud, or is there any evidence suggesting that this can be explained by other, such as demographic, factors? Studies addressing this question could look if such a "red shift", if measurable at all, depends on voter demographics, voting method (paper vs. machine), or other factors.

This questions on Politics SE introduced me to the concept of the red shift. In short, the claim of a red shift boils down to a statistically significant difference between outcome of final exit polls and results of elections, which would then imply fraud. Some quotes of (effectively identical) claims from different sources:

America's Media Just Made Vote-Rigging Easier. By Victoria Collier, Truthout

The Red Shift has been detected in both state and federal American elections, where computerized vote totals have consistently "shifted" - often by a 5 percent to 7 percent margin disparity (sometimes less, but sometimes much greater) - in comparison to hand-counts and polling data. This mysterious seismic lurch invariably pushes votes to the right, and when the dust settles, it has inordinately benefitted GOP candidates and ballot issues

Wisconsin: None dare call it vote rigging. By Bob Fitrakis, The Free Press

One of my favorite mathematicians is Richard Charnin, who on his website using readily available public information, calculates the odds of the so-called ‘red shift" occurring from the 1988 to 2008 presidential elections. The red shift refers to the overwhelming pick up of votes by the Republican Party in recorded votes over what actual voters report to exit pollsters.

And perhaps the strongest claim of all, one used as a source for many others:

Election Fraud: An Introduction to Exit Poll Probability Analysis , Richard Charnin:

123 of the 126 exit polls in which the MoE was exceeded moved to the recorded vote in favor of the Republican (the “red shift”). Just 3 moved in favor of the Democrat (” the blue shift”). There is a ZERO probability that this one-sided shift was due to chance. It is powerful evidence beyond any doubt of pervasive systemic election fraud.

The titles of the three posts all state this implies fraud or vote-rigging, but a comment in the third link begs to differ:

The statistical analysis here is impressive, but it fails to address one major flaw in almost all statistics that involve exit polling and polling in general; there is an inherent demographic of individuals who willingly choose to take polls and that same demographic tend to lean more Republican/Conservative in nature. That factor alone can account for everything in your model suggesting fraud.

My question therefore consists of two parts:

  1. Is there such a "red shift"?
  2. If so, can this only be explained by fraud, or is there any evidence suggesting that this can be explained by other, such as demographic, factors? Studies addressing this question could look if such a "red shift", if measurable at all, depends on voter demographics, voting method (paper vs. machine), or other factors.

This questions on Politics SE introduced me to the concept of the red shift. In short, the claim of a red shift boils down to a statistically significant difference between outcome of final exit polls and results of elections, which would then imply fraud. Some quotes of (effectively identical) claims from different sources:

America's Media Just Made Vote-Rigging Easier. By Victoria Collier, Truthout

The Red Shift has been detected in both state and federal American elections, where computerized vote totals have consistently "shifted" - often by a 5 percent to 7 percent margin disparity (sometimes less, but sometimes much greater) - in comparison to hand-counts and polling data. This mysterious seismic lurch invariably pushes votes to the right, and when the dust settles, it has inordinately benefitted GOP candidates and ballot issues

Wisconsin: None dare call it vote rigging. By Bob Fitrakis, The Free Press

One of my favorite mathematicians is Richard Charnin, who on his website using readily available public information, calculates the odds of the so-called ‘red shift" occurring from the 1988 to 2008 presidential elections. The red shift refers to the overwhelming pick up of votes by the Republican Party in recorded votes over what actual voters report to exit pollsters.

And perhaps the strongest claim of all, one used as a source for many others:

Election Fraud: An Introduction to Exit Poll Probability Analysis , Richard Charnin:

123 of the 126 exit polls in which the MoE was exceeded moved to the recorded vote in favor of the Republican (the “red shift”). Just 3 moved in favor of the Democrat (” the blue shift”). There is a ZERO probability that this one-sided shift was due to chance. It is powerful evidence beyond any doubt of pervasive systemic election fraud.

The titles of the three posts all state this implies fraud or vote-rigging, but a comment in the third link begs to differ:

The statistical analysis here is impressive, but it fails to address one major flaw in almost all statistics that involve exit polling and polling in general; there is an inherent demographic of individuals who willingly choose to take polls and that same demographic tend to lean more Republican/Conservative in nature. That factor alone can account for everything in your model suggesting fraud.

My question therefore consists of two parts:

  1. Is there such a "red shift"?
  2. If so, can this only be explained by fraud, or is there any evidence suggesting that this can be explained by other, such as demographic, factors? Studies addressing this question could look if such a "red shift", if measurable at all, depends on voter demographics, voting method (paper vs. machine), or other factors.
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