BlueRaja - Danny Pflughoeft
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 15h comment Are black Americans responsible for more than 50% of homicides? "Information about the offender" is not recorded for 2/3rds of all homicides!? Mar 7 awarded Yearling Feb 15 comment Is the chance of an obese person attaining normal body weight 1 in 210 for men and 1 in 124 for women? "Chance" makes it sound like they are actively attempting to lose weight, and failing. More likely it's just "1 out of 210 obese men will eventually attain a normal body weight", which sounds reasonable. Oct 8 comment A century ago, was giving birth a major cause of death? Why is everyone talking about long-term damage/cumulative toll? The professor never said anything about that in the article. Below someone stated the chance of death during childbirth was ~4%. If you (planned on) having 10 children, that means your chances of dying during childbirth were `1-0.96^10` ≈ 1 in 3. That's what she meant. Oct 5 comment Are you more likely to be struck by lightning than to win the lottery? No you didn't, you slightly changed the numbers to incorrect (for the reasons stated above) values. Again, it doesn't affect the result, but it's always best to show the correct math... Oct 5 awarded Famous Question Oct 2 comment Are you more likely to be struck by lightning than to win the lottery? For the record, my original link is correct. `1:1` odds means `1/2` probability; `1:10` odds means `1/11` probability. Again, the difference does not change the result, but since the math I originally posted was correct, I don't understand why you'd change it. Oct 2 comment Are you more likely to be struck by lightning than to win the lottery? @zzzzBov: ...No it's not. They're approximately equal, but as you said, `104:292201338` is approximately correct. The actual correct answer is "slightly less than `1/2,809,628`", which is the same as "slightly worse odds than `1:2,809,627`", which you could reasonably round down to `1:2,809,628`. See my first comment for the math. Oct 1 comment Are you more likely to be struck by lightning than to win the lottery? I'm not sure where @zzzzBov or @nico are seeing `104:292,201,338`, that was not stated in any of this answer's revisions. Also nico, `292201337:292201338` is not the same thing as `292201337/292201338` (which is also incorrect, it should be `292201338/292201339` for the reasons I mentioned above. The difference is inconsequential, though) Oct 1 comment Are you more likely to be struck by lightning than to win the lottery? Which is exactly why original research is strongly discouraged on this site :) Oct 1 comment Are you more likely to be struck by lightning than to win the lottery? Please show your math. If the odds of one win are `1:292,201,338`, then the odds after 104 attempts would be about `1:2,809,627`. See this page (click 'fraction form'). Note that `1:x` odds means `1/(x+1)` probability. Jul 28 comment Would eating a packet of cigarettes be fatal? Even if this claim is true, you can't draw any useful conclusions about cigarettes from it. Eating toothpaste probably isn't good for you, but that doesn't mean using toothpaste is harmful. Jul 28 comment Would eating a packet of cigarettes be fatal? Not sure why this answer has so many upvotes, it's the answer to a completely different question.. Jul 27 awarded Popular Question Jul 13 awarded Autobiographer Jul 1 comment Can science explain how bicycles work? Jun 22 comment Do more males than females use the Internet? Simply looking at the number of males vs. females who use the Internet is not a useful comparison, because nearly everyone uses the Internet these days. A better measure would be, average hours using the Internet per day (which would give a reasonable estimate of 'For a random person who is on the Internet right now, what are the chances they are male?') Jun 4 comment Is eating rice harmful to birds? Jun 4 comment Has the Red Cross raised half a billion dollars for Haiti to build 6 houses? Right, which is why I don't expect you to debate it here. But some more references would be helpful for anyone else researching this topic. You only have one. Jun 3 comment Has the Red Cross raised half a billion dollars for Haiti to build 6 houses? I think most people reading this are more concerned with "Should I be upset at Red Cross for wasting my donated cash," rather than about the truth of this particular hyperbole. You mentioned "Other parts of the article raise some very valid concerns [..] which have been noted by other reports" - perhaps you could link to those other reports?