Is Japan's nuclear disaster “on par” with Chernobyl?

Question

Many news organizations (e.g. CNN, Huffington Post, etc) are referring to the Japan incident as something as severe as Chernobyl, i.e. a nuclear event with International Atomic Energy Agency rating "7". I'm skeptical of this equivalence because the radiation from Japan's Fukushima Dai-ichi plants seems to be predominantly cesium and iodine, whereas Chernobyl's radiation included more dangerous isotopes such as plutonium.

Is the Japan nuclear disaster as dangerous to human health as Chernobyl (both locally and around the world)?

Note: This question is similar to (but not the same as) Can a “second Chernobyl” happen at the nuclear reactors damaged by the tsunami in Japan?

Answer 1

Useful authoritative site updated daily: Fukushima Nuclear Accident Update Log

---

This is a wiki response to the question: Is the Japan nuclear disaster as dangerous to human health as Chernobyl (both locally and around the world)?

The Chernobyl incident is now well documented, see e.g. Wikipedia's article "Chernobyl Disaster". For the moment references to Fukushima will be to contemporaneous news articles.

At the time of this writing, it seems reasonable to conclude that the Fukushima incident will have a fraction of the impact of Chernobyl, based on the analysis below. In particular:

1. The amount of radiation released by Fukushima is a fraction of Chernobyl;
2. The spread of the radiation from Fukushima is unlikely to hit highly populated areas like Chernobyl's radiation did;
3. The types of isotopes released by Fukushima are not as dangerous as those released by Chernobyl; and
4. The reported effects of Fukushima are significantly less than Chernobyl's reported effects.

Here is the analysis:

Amount of radiation by absorbed energy

The amount of radiation by absorbed energy in millisieverts per hours at Fukushima seems to have been a fraction of about a fiftieth (1/50th) of Chernobyl's at what seem to be comparable water sources.

Chernobyl

Sample recorded levels during Chernobyl (See: JPRS Report Economic Affairs, "Chernobyl Notebook" by G. Medvedev June 1989):

• Vicinity of reactor core: 300,000 mSv/h
• Water in Level +25 feedwater room: 50,000 mSv/h

Fukushima

Highest reported level during Fukushima accident: 4,000 mSv/h reported as the level at a pool of water in the turbine room of reactor two. (See: The Guardian, "Japan doubles Fukushima radiation leak estimate", June 7, 2011)

Spread of the radiation geographically

The spread of radiation from the Japan incident over human habitats is significantly less than that of Chernobyl because much of the radiation from Japan dispersed over the Pacific ocean.

Chernobyl

From Wikipedia's article "Chernobyl Diaster effects"

The explosion at the power station and subsequent fires inside the remains of the reactor provoked a radioactive cloud which drifted not only over Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, but also over the European part of Turkey, Greece, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Austria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Poland, Estonia, Switzerland, Germany, Italy, Ireland, France (including Corsica4), Canada5 and the United Kingdom (UK).6

Fukushima

Much of the Fukushima radiation has dispersed over the Pacific Ocean. (See: Christian Science Monitor, "Fukushima raised to level 7 the same category as Chernobyl but Chernobyl had10 to 100 times more radiation", April 12, 2011)

Amount and types of radioisotopes

While parts of the fuel rods and graphite particles were ejected into the atmosphere at Chernobyl, only iodine, cesium and Xenon-133 have been noted in the media reports about releases from Fukushima.

While some reports of plutonium have been reported in the soil, greater amounts of plutonium were discovered in Japanese soil after overseas nuclear testing. (See: The Guardian, "Japan doubles Fukushima radiation leak estimate", 7 June, 2011)

Iodine-131

Iodine released has been at a fraction of that of Chernobyl of about one fourteenth (1/14th) to one eight (1/8th). The measured amounts are: Fukushima: 770,000 terabecquerels of iodine-131 (The Guardian, "Japan doubles Fukushima radiation leak estimate", June 7, 2011); Chernobyl: 5.2 million terabecquerels (See: The Globe and Mail article "Japan Haunted by spectre of Chernobyl").

Cesium-134 and -137

A paper, A. Stohl, P. Seibert, G. Wotawa, D. Arnold, J. F. Burkhart, S. Eckhardt, C. Tapia, A. Vargas, and T. J. Yasunari “Xenon-133 and caesium-137 releases into the atmosphere from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant: determination of the source term, atmospheric dispersion, and deposition”, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 28319–28394, 2011, states "For [cesium 137], the inversion results give a total emission of 35.8 (23.3–50.1) PBq, or about 42 % of the estimated Chernobyl emission" (the "Stohl paper").

By this estimate Fukushima has released 40% of the radioactive caesium of Chernobyl. This is significant, and by this metric Fukushima is not on par with Chernobyl, strictly speaking, but it is in the same order of magnitude. As well, Chernobyl released many much more dangerous particles, namely radioactive isotopes of plutonium and uranium.

Xenon-133

According to the Stohl paper, under the metric of Xenon-133 release, Fukushima exceeds Chernobyl:

Total a posteriori 133 Xe emissions are 16.7 EBq, one third more than the a priori value of 12.6 EBq (which is equal to the estimated inventory) and 2.5 times the estimated Chernobyl source term of 6.5 EBq

The authors note that their measurements of Xenon-133 exceed inventory, and "Emissions cannot exceed 100 % of the inventory, so this may indicate that our inversion overestimates the emissions." The estimate may be revised over time.

Xenon-133 has a very short half-life in the body, of "a few minutes", so it doesn't stay in the body very long. There's a well referenced post on the UC Berkeley Department of Nuclear Engineering on the effects of Xenon, which concludes:

So the bottom line is: Xe-133 does not stay in the body very long, and it's not very dangerous even if it's in the air around you.

So while Xenon-133 has been released from Fukushima in amounts greater than Chernobyl, and Xenon-133 is a radioactive isotope, the effects on human health of Xenon-133 even in amounts released from Fukushima are likely a fraction of the effects of the releases of more dangerous isotopes from Chernobyl (i.e. radioactive isotopes of plutonium, uranium, caesium, iodine).

In general

From the Wikipedia article on the Chernobyl disaster remarking on the radioisotopes released from Chernobyl:

The release of radioisotopes from the nuclear fuel was largely controlled by their boiling points, and the majority of the radioactivity present in the core was retained in the reactor.

• All of the noble gases, including krypton and xenon, contained within the reactor were released immediately into the atmosphere by the first steam explosion.
• About 1760 PBq or 400 kg of I-131, 55% of the radioactive iodine in the reactor, was released, as a mixture of vapor, solid particles, and organic iodine compounds. Caesium (85 PBq Cs-137[79]) and tellurium were released in aerosol form.
• An early estimate for fuel material released to the environment was 3 ± 1.5%; this was later revised to 3.5 ± 0.5%. This corresponds to the atmospheric emission of 6 t of fragmented fuel.

Two sizes of particles were released: small particles of 0.3 to 1.5 micrometers (aerodynamic diameter) and large particles of 10 micrometers. The large particles contained about 80% to 90% of the released nonvolatile radioisotopes zirconium-95, niobium-95, lanthanum-140, cerium-144 and the transuranic elements, including neptunium, plutonium and the minor actinides, embedded in a uranium oxide matrix.

Reported health effects

Chernobyl

The actual effects of Chernobyl are somewhat contested and vary dramatically. At the least, it is acknowledged that 237 people reported acute radiation sickness, with 31 deaths within 3 months. Some claim the deaths may be as high as 200,000 to 900,000. (See: Wikipedia's article: "Chernobyl disaster")

Fukushima

21 workers have reportedly been affected by minor radiation sickness. (See: Nuclear crises: How do Fukushima and Chernobyl compare?).

In the wake of the earthquake and tsunami it may be difficult to find accurate recordings of any effects of the nuclear incident alone.

Note regarding iodine: Thyroid cancer, caused by radioactive iodine, has been considered by some to be one of the main causes of death from Chernobyl. Iodine tablets are being distributed in Japan that prevent thyroid cancer. (See: Japan to Distribute Iodine Tablets Near Nuclear Plant, Newser.com, March 12, 2011; See also Wikipedia's article "Chernobyl disaster" at Assessing the diasaster's effects on human health). It's also noteworthy that thyroid cancer is treatable with very high success.

Other resources

There are some reasonably comprehensive articles on the comparison, including:

• The Globe and Mail Japan Haunted by spectre of Chernobyl, Apr. 12, 2011:

  "The key difference between the two disasters remains that the four troubled nuclear reactors at Fukushima shut down, while Chernobyl exploded with the reactor still running, causing a catastrophic chain reaction that shot radiation into the upper atmosphere."

• Guardian Nuclear crises: How do Fukushima and Chernobyl compare?, April 12, 2011
• Living Intentionally (blog), Radioactive Iodine And Cesium In Japan: Just The Facts, March 27, 2011 by Trane Francks

Answer 2

One difference between Fukushima and Chernobyl for human health is the distribution of iodine tablets. According to the linked article, the biggest problem was radioactive iodine causing cancer, which the tablets can prevent. Chernobyl didn't distribute the tablets well, while Japan did.

Of course, this is only good for human health. This wouldn't affect, say, environmental impact - unless they decided to distribute tablets to the animals!

Edit: It seems no civilians in the area used iodine tablets, on the grounds they didn't receive enough exposure for it to be justified: Was stable iodine distributed post-Fukushima by the Japanese government?