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Many western democracies limit the power of their politicians to control the electoral boundaries to avoid the possibility of gerrymandering. UK electoral boundaries, for example, are redrawn when required by an independent commission. Many US states, however, put the boundaries entirely under the control of elected politicians and this often results in some fairly odd boundaries.

Some regard this as self-evidently bad. For example, the following argument is made on www.fairvote.org:

Redistricting encourages manipulation of our elections by allowing incumbent politicians to help partisan allies, hurt political enemies and choose their voters before the voters choose them. The current process is used as a means to further political goals by drawing boundaries to protect incumbents and reduce competition, rather than to ensure equal voting power and fair representation.

Some states have had non-political control for some time (Iowa, for example) and others have recently enacted citizen driven initiatives to remove the power from politicians (eg California). (see this CNN report for some examples).

It seems likely that gerrymandering will strengthen incumbents. But what does the actual evidence say? How much does it increase electoral security for incumbents?

Note: The original question here asked about both strengthening incumbents and driving polarisation. I've now separated this into two questions so the two issues can be addressed separately. Hopefully this resolves some of the confusion expressed in the comments on the original.

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I'm confused by what is being asked, sorry. This seems to be fishing for a positive outcome, any positive outcome, to an act which is against the values of many/most people. The act of putting political self-interest above the right to equal representation (a moral value, not a scientific fact) makes the act of gerrymandering ethically wrong (to many), no matter what the unintended outcomes. Asking the equivalent to "Surely we can think of some good outcomes of murder?" seems to miss the point. – Oddthinking Oct 18 '12 at 22:34
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I was hoping to focus on the demonstrable effects of gerrymandering in order to avoid the debate on values which would be off topic. A concrete link to more secure incumbents or stronger polarisation should be statistically demonstrable (if true) and doesn't require a value judgement. – matt_black Oct 18 '12 at 22:41
Perhaps we can narrow this down then to one of those two, and lose the "ensuring minorities get (disproportionate) representation, and other positives" angle? You seem to have already answered the polarisation claim yourself, so should the question be "Is gerrymandering successful at securing incumbents in office?"? – Oddthinking Oct 18 '12 at 22:46
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Far too many assumptions in this question, and far too much vagueness in the expected answer. Is gerrymandering "bad"? Not something we can answer here. – DJClayworth Oct 19 '12 at 15:51
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While it is not evidence in the Skeptics.SE sense, the very way that politicians squabble over redistricting suggests that they believe it matters. Two possible avenues of research would be looking at incumbent retention rates as a function of time since the last redistricting (probably a small effects, but there is potentially a lot of data) and compare the retention rates in the (say) decade before and after California's move to a "non-partisan" commission (if we have any idea what non-partisan means and how it can be assured on a on-going basis). – dmckee Oct 19 '12 at 19:01
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